Intro -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- The BACC II Author Team -- Abbreviations and Acronyms -- 1 Introduction and Summary -- Abstract -- 1.1 Overview -- 1.1.1 Background -- 1.1.2 Overall Summary -- 1.1.3 The BACC Process -- 1.1.4 Important Terminology -- 1.1.5 Annexes -- 1.2 Executive Summary -- 1.2.1 Long-term Climate Change: From the Holocene to the Little Ice Age -- 1.2.2 Recent Climate Change: The Past 200 Years -- 1.2.2.1 Recent Changes in the Atmosphere -- 1.2.2.2 Recent Changes in Hydrology and the Terrestrial Cryosphere -- 1.2.2.3 Recent Changes in Baltic Sea Hydrography -- 1.2.3 Future Climate Change -- 1.2.3.1 Models and Methodology -- 1.2.3.2 Projections of Future Climate Change -- 1.2.4 Environmental Impacts of Climate Change -- 1.2.4.1 Atmospheric Chemistry -- 1.2.4.2 Coastal Ecosystems, Birds, and Forests -- 1.2.4.3 Freshwater Biogeochemistry -- 1.2.4.4 Marine Biogeochemistry -- 1.2.4.5 Marine Ecosystems -- 1.2.4.6 Coastal Erosion and Coastline Changes -- 1.2.5 Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change -- 1.2.5.1 Forestry and Agriculture -- 1.2.5.2 Urban Complexes -- 1.2.6 Drivers of Regional Climate Change: Detecting Anthropogenic Change and Attributing Plausible Causes -- 1.2.6.1 Regional Evidence of Global Warming -- 1.2.6.2 Aerosols -- 1.2.6.3 Land Cover -- References -- Part ILong-term Climate Change -- 2 Climate Change During the Holocene (Past 12,000 Years) -- Abstract -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Causes of Climate Variability During the Holocene -- 2.2.1 External Climate Forcing -- 2.2.1.1 Astronomical Conditions -- 2.2.1.2 Solar Activity -- 2.2.1.3 Volcanic Eruptions -- 2.2.1.4 Greenhouse Gases -- 2.2.2 Climate Modelling of the Holocene in the Baltic Sea Basin -- 2.3 Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions Over the Holocene -- 2.3.1 Sources of Palaeoclimatic Data -- 2.3.2 Methodology for Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions.

2.4 Climate Variability During the Holocene Relevant for the Baltic Sea Basin -- 2.4.1 Climate at the Boundary of the Younger Dryas/Holocene -- 2.4.2 Early Holocene Oscillations -- 2.4.3 The `8.2 ka Cold Event' -- 2.4.4 The Holocene Thermal Maximum -- 2.4.5 Late Holocene Cooling -- 2.5 Conclusion -- References -- 3 The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years) -- Abstract -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Data Sources and Methodology -- 3.3 General Features of the Millennial Climate -- 3.4 The Medieval Warm Period (MWP 900--1350) -- 3.5 The Transitional Period (TP 1350--1550) -- 3.6 The Little Ice Age (LIA 1550--1850) -- 3.7 Conclusion -- References -- Part IIRecent Climate Change (Past 200 Years) -- 4 Recent Change---Atmosphere -- Abstract -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Large-Scale Circulation Patterns -- 4.2.1 Circulation Changes in Recent Decades -- 4.2.2 Long-Term Circulation Changes -- 4.2.3 NAO and Blocking -- 4.2.4 Distant Controls of Circulation Changes -- 4.2.5 Controls of the NAO -- 4.2.6 Circulation Changes in Contrast to Global Warming -- 4.3 Surface Pressure and Winds -- 4.3.1 Wind Climate in Recent Decades -- 4.3.2 Long-Term Wind Climate -- 4.3.3 Long-Term Trends Versus Decadal Variability -- 4.3.4 Potential Inconsistencies in Long-Term Trends -- 4.4 Surface Air Temperature -- 4.4.1 Long-term Temperature Climate -- 4.4.2 Temperature Trends in Recent Decades -- 4.4.3 Daily Cycle and Seasonality -- 4.4.4 Temperature Extremes -- 4.5 Precipitation -- 4.5.1 Long-Term Precipitation Climate -- 4.5.2 Precipitation Climate in Recent Decades -- 4.5.3 Precipitation Extremes -- 4.6 Cloudiness and Solar Radiation -- 4.6.1 Cloudiness -- 4.6.2 Sunshine Duration and Solar Radiation -- 4.7 Conclusion -- References -- 5 Recent Change---River Run-off and Ice Cover -- Abstract -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.1.1 General Drainage Characteristics of the Baltic Sea Basin.

5.2 Basin-scale Change in Run-off Patterns -- 5.3 Regional and Seasonal Variations -- 5.3.1 Sub-basin-scale Changes -- 5.3.2 Regional Discharge Patterns by Country -- 5.3.2.1 Estonia -- 5.3.2.2 Finland -- 5.3.2.3 Latvia -- 5.3.2.4 Lithuania -- 5.3.2.5 Poland -- 5.3.2.6 Russia -- 5.3.2.7 Sweden -- 5.4 River Ice Regime -- 5.5 Conclusion -- References -- 6 Recent Change---Terrestrial Cryosphere -- Abstract -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Recent and Present Change in Seasonal Snow Cover -- 6.2.1 Snow Cover Formation, Duration and Melt -- 6.2.2 Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent -- 6.2.3 Snow Cover Extent -- 6.2.4 Snow Structure and Properties -- 6.2.5 Extreme Events -- 6.3 Recent and Present Change in Glacier Extent and Mass Balance -- 6.4 Recent and Present Change in Frozen Ground -- 6.4.1 Seasonally Frozen Ground -- 6.4.2 Permafrost -- 6.5 Conclusion -- References -- 7 Recent Change---Marine Circulation and Stratification -- Abstract -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Trends and Variations in Water Temperature -- 7.3 Changes in Salinity, Stratification and Water Exchange -- 7.4 Circulation and Transport Patterns and Processes -- 7.4.1 Surface Circulation and Related Processes---Recent Findings -- 7.4.2 Dynamics in the Bottom Layer -- 7.4.3 Mixing -- 7.5 Sensitivity to Changes in Forcing -- 7.6 Conclusion -- References -- 8 Recent Change---Sea Ice -- Abstract -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Ice Extent -- 8.3 Ice Duration -- 8.4 Ice Thickness -- 8.5 Conclusion -- References -- 9 Recent Change---Sea Level and Wind Waves -- Abstract -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Sea Level Observations -- 9.2.1 Tide Gauges -- 9.2.2 Satellite Altimetry and GPS Measurements -- 9.3 Change in Mean Sea Level -- 9.3.1 Main Factors Driving Sea Level Change -- 9.3.1.1 Large-Scale Factors -- 9.3.1.2 Regional and Local Factors -- Land Movement -- Meteorological Influence.

9.3.2 Variations Within the Observational Period (Past 200 Years) -- 9.3.2.1 Long-Term Trends and Decadal Variations -- Absolute Sea Level -- Relative Sea Level -- 9.3.2.2 Changes in Seasonal Variability -- 9.3.2.3 Is Sea Level Rise Within the Baltic Sea Accelerating? -- 9.4 Extreme Sea Levels -- 9.4.1 Main Factors Affecting Extreme Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea -- 9.4.2 Statistics and Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels -- 9.5 Wind Waves -- 9.5.1 Instrumental Measurements -- 9.5.2 Visual Observations -- 9.5.3 Hindcast Simulations -- 9.5.3.1 Long-Term and Extreme Wave Properties -- 9.5.3.2 Spatio-Temporal Variations -- 9.6 Conclusion -- References -- Part IIIFuture Climate Change -- 10 Projected Change---Models and Methodology -- Abstract -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Dynamical Downscaling -- 10.2.1 Methodology for Dynamical Downscaling -- 10.2.2 Performance of RCMs in Reproducing Recent Climate -- 10.2.3 Developing and Extending RCMs -- 10.3 Statistical Downscaling -- 10.3.1 Model Output Statistics -- 10.3.1.1 Bias Correction Method -- 10.3.1.2 Perturbation of Observed Data -- 10.3.2 The`Perfect Prognosis' Approach -- 10.3.2.1 A Brand of Calibration Strategies -- 10.3.2.2 Regression Methods -- 10.3.2.3 Weather Classification Methods -- 10.3.2.4 Weather Generators -- 10.3.2.5 Randomisation -- 10.4 Ensembles, How to Use Them and How to Assess an Error of Projection -- 10.4.1 Different Types of Ensembles -- 10.4.2 Are Ensemble Projections Better Than Those Based on Single Climate Projections? -- 10.4.3 Performance-Based Weighting of Ensembles -- 10.4.4 Design and Use of GCM-RCM Ensemble Regional Climate Projections -- 10.5 Validation Techniques -- 10.5.1 Validation Data -- 10.5.2 Validation Indices -- 10.5.3 Validation Measures -- 10.5.4 Measures for Distribution-Wise Validation -- 10.5.5 Measures for Eventwise Validation.

10.5.6 Validation in a Climate Change Context -- 10.6 Skill of Downscaling Methods -- 10.7 Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling -- 10.8 Downscaling in the Context of Climate Change Impact Studies -- 10.9 Conclusion -- References -- 11 Projected Change---Atmosphere -- Abstract -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Emission Scenarios -- 11.3 Global Climate Models -- 11.4 Regional Climate Models -- 11.5 Temperature -- 11.6 Precipitation -- 11.7 Wind -- 11.8 Snow -- 11.9 Statistical Downscaling -- 11.10 Conclusion -- References -- 12 Projected Change---Hydrology -- Abstract -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Country-Specific Projections -- 12.2.1 Belarus -- 12.2.2 Denmark -- 12.2.3 Estonia -- 12.2.4 Finland -- 12.2.5 Germany -- 12.2.6 Latvia -- 12.2.7 Lithuania -- 12.2.8 Norway -- 12.2.9 Poland -- 12.2.10 Russia -- 12.2.11 Sweden -- 12.3 Conclusion -- References -- 13 Projected Change---Marine Physics -- Abstract -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Water Temperature -- 13.3 Salinity -- 13.4 Sea Ice -- 13.5 Storm Surges -- 13.6 Wind Waves -- 13.7 Conclusion -- References -- 14 Projected Change---Sea Level -- Abstract -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Sea-level Budget -- 14.3 Steric Expansion -- 14.4 Geoid Changes -- 14.5 Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps -- 14.6 Greenland Ice Sheet -- 14.7 Antarctic Ice Sheet -- 14.8 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment -- 14.9 The Compiled Budget -- 14.10 Conclusion -- References -- Part IVEnvironmental Impacts of Climate Change -- 15 Environmental Impacts---Atmospheric Chemistry -- Abstract -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 Emissions -- 15.2.1 Land-Based Sources -- 15.2.2 Shipping -- 15.2.2.1 Historical Perspective -- 15.2.2.2 Recent Developments -- 15.2.2.3 Future Projections -- 15.2.3 Land and Sea Emissions---Impact of Climate Change -- 15.3 Observed Concentrations and Deposition -- 15.3.1 Sulphur and Nitrogen -- 15.3.2 Ozone.

15.4 Modelled Concentrations and Deposition.

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