When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable?.
- 1 online resource (377 pages)
- The Political Economy of the Middle East Ser. .
Intro -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- Notes on Contributors -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- List of Boxes -- Chapter 1: Introduction: Economic Sustainability of Oil Economies -- 1 What Is Sustainable? -- 2 What Is Unsustainable? -- 3 This Book -- 4 A Holistic, and Realistic, Picture -- 5 Fiscal Sustainability -- 6 Labor Market Reform -- 7 Environmental Sustainability -- 8 Sustainability of GCC development -- Chapter 2: Framing the Economic Sustainability of Oil Economies -- 1 Introduction: My First Visit to Abu Dhabi -- 2 No Economy Is Sustainable Without Change -- 3 Identifying Needed Change -- 4 Diversification Has Taken Place -- 5 Dutch Disease and Expatriate Labor -- 6 The Productivity Issue -- 7 Potential for Further Diversification and Defense of Hydrocarbons' Value -- 7.1 Decarbonize the Production of Oil and Gas -- 7.2 Carbon Capture and Sequestration -- 7.3 Further Integrate Downstream Toward Non-fuel Uses -- 7.4 The Hydrogen Economy -- 8 Need for Developing Taxation -- 9 Genuine Reliance on Private Sector -- 10 Tackle Inequality -- References -- Chapter 3: Fiscal Sustainability, the Labor Market, and Growth in Saudi Arabia -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Sizing-Up the Macro Shock -- 3 The Stabilization Challenge -- 4 What Growth Strategy? -- 5 The Central Challenge: Saudis Employability -- 6 The Policy Agenda Ahead -- 7 The Political Economy Challenge -- References -- Chapter 4: Outlook for Producer Economies -- 1 Introduction: Risks to Producer Economies-Current Problems and Emerging Pressures -- 2 How Do the Economic Pressures in Producer Economies Evolve Going Forward? -- 3 The Macro-Economic Impact of the Two Scenarios -- 4 The Future Role of a Competitive Energy Sector -- 4.1 Capturing More Value from Hydrocarbons -- 4.2 Using Natural Gas Strategically in Support of Diversification Goals. 4.3 Tapping the Large, Underutilised Potential of Renewables -- 4.4 Phasing Out Subsidised Use of Energy to Improve Its Efficiency -- 4.5 Ensuring Adequate Investment for a Dynamic Upstream -- 4.6 Supporting the Development of Cleaner and More Efficient Energy Technologies -- 5 Implications and Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 5: Economic Diversification in Arab Oil-Exporting Countries in the Context of Peak Oil and the Energy Transition -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Energy Transition and Perceptions of Peak Oil Demand -- 3 The Implications for Arab Oil-Exporting Countries -- 3.1 Oil Demand Is Unlikely to Increase Strongly Over the Next Two Decades -- 3.2 Large Investments Will Still Be Needed in the Oil Sector to Fill the Gap in Supply -- 3.3 Renewables Are at an Inflection Point -- 4 The Strategic Role of the Oil Sector in the Energy Transition -- 4.1 The Oil Sector Will Continue to Dominate the Economy, But it Needs to Play a More Active Role in the Diversification Process -- 4.2 The Use of Demand-Side Measures to Optimise the Resource Base -- 4.3 Renewables as a Complement to Economic Diversification Strategies -- 5 The Role of Oil Policy and Producer Cooperation -- 6 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 6: Economic Diversification and Sustainable Development of GCC Countries -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Trends in Production and Foreign Trade -- 2.1 Exports and Imports -- 2.2 Intermediate Consumption, Value Added and Output -- 3 Economic Diversification of the GCC Countries in International Comparison -- 3.1 Product Concentration and Product Diversification -- 3.2 Economic Diversification of the Industrial Sector -- 4 New Assessment for GCC Countries with Input-Output Data -- 4.1 Traditional Input-Output Indicators for GCC Countries -- 4.2 Primary Diversity Measure -- 5 Sustainable Development of Nations: Adjusted Net National Income and Savings. 5.1 Adjusted Net National Income -- 5.2 Adjusted Net Saving -- 5.3 Test for Sustainable Development -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 7: Redefining Economic Sustainability in Resource-rich States: Comparative Lessons -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Changing Understanding of Economic Sustainability in Resource States -- 3 Redefining Economic Sustainability -- 3.1 Why a Redefinition Is Required -- 3.2 A Redefinition: Back to Basics -- 3.2.1 Growth in Theory -- 3.2.2 An Elementary Numerical Simulation -- 3.2.3 Natural Resources and Technology -- 3.3 The Takeaway -- 4 Lessons and Comparative Assessments -- 4.1 Fiscal Rigor and Savings for Capital Accumulation -- 4.2 Human Capital -- 4.3 Technology, Institutions, and Taxes -- 4.4 Industrial Reform and Regulation of Oligopolies -- 5 Key Messages -- Appendix 1: Classical Growth Model -- Natural Resources and Technology -- References -- Chapter 8: Fuel and Electricity Reform for Economic Sustainability in the Gulf -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Triple Rationale of Low Energy Prices -- 3 The Sustainability Rationale for Energy Pricing Reform, and Results in the GCC -- 4 Fuel Pricing Reform in the GCC -- 4.1 The 'Gradual' Fuel Price Reformers -- 4.2 The 'Ad hoc' Fuel Price Reformers -- 4.3 GCC Fuel Prices in Comparison -- 5 GCC Electricity Pricing Reforms and Tariffs -- 5.1 Cross-Subsidies Between Consumer Groups -- 5.2 Blocked Tariff Designs -- 5.3 Electricity Pricing Reforms and Tariffs in Comparison -- 6 Commerce, Industry and Energy Pricing Reforms -- 7 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 9: Fiscal Sustainability and Hydrocarbon Endowment Per Capita in the GCC -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Variations in GCC Hydrocarbon Endowments and Economic Sustainability -- 3 Hydrocarbon Endowment Seen in Various Fiscal and Economic Indicators -- 4 Fiscal Reform Momentum -- 5 Phases in GCC Fiscal Reform. 5.1 Phase 1: Expenditure Cutbacks and Subsidy Reforms in 2015 and 2016 -- 5.2 Phase 2: Reduction in Pace of Reform in 2017 -- Stabilization in Spending -- 5.3 Phase 3: Shift to Expansionary Fiscal Stance from 2018 -- Introduction of VAT -- 5.4 VAT Introduction, the Main Reform in Phase 3 -- 5.5 Measures to Support Growth -- 6 Greatest Adjustment by Country -- 7 Conclusion -- Appendix A: Key Fiscal Reforms by GCC Countries -- Appendix B: UAE Key Policies Announced to Support Economic Activity -- References -- Chapter 10: GCC Fiscal Reforms and Labor Market Policies -- 1 Introduction -- 2 National Population Impacted by Reforms -- Greatest Burden on Expatriates -- 3 Hydrocarbon Endowment Per Capita and the Labor Market -- 4 Labor Market Reforms and Policies to Reduce Foreign Labor -- 5 Pressure on Expatriate Population and Economic Impact -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 11: Economic Diversification and Job Creation in the Arab Gulf Countries: Applying a Value Chain Perspective -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Diversification in the Gulf Countries -- 3 Value Chains -- 4 The Challenge of Job Creation in the Gulf -- 4.1 Diversification Within the Oil and Gas Sector -- 4.2 Moving Downstream Via Technological 'Upskilling' in the Gulf Countries -- 4.3 Upskilling of the National Labor Force -- 5 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 12: Climate Strategy for Producer Countries: The Case of Saudi Arabia -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Contrasting Strategies -- 3 Saudi Arabia's Climate Profile -- 4 The Importance of Oil in Saudi Political Economy -- 5 Strategy No. 1 "Dig In": Reduce Vulnerability of Oil Sector to Climate Action -- 5.1 Climate Obstructionism -- 5.2 Petrochemicals and Non-Combustion Uses for Crudes -- 5.3 Differentiating Among Crude Oil Grades by Carbon Intensity -- 5.4 Backing Internal Combustion Engines over EVs -- 5.5 The 'Lock In' Strategy. 6 Strategy No. 2 "Join In" Climate Action -- 6.1 Renewables and Nuclear Power -- 6.2 Social License to Operate -- 7 Strategy No. 3 "Throw In" and Accept Climate Damage -- 8 Conclusion: A Fourth Strategy -- References -- Chapter 13: The Sustainability of GCC Development Under the New Global Oil Order -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Growth and Institutions in the GCC: Resource Rents Threshold Matters -- 3 Maintaining Civil Peace and Political Stability: Resource Rents Threshold also Matters -- 3.1 Resource Rents, Threshold Effects and Civil Wars -- 3.2 Resource Abundance, Threshold Effects and Democratic Transitions -- 4 GCC Development Sustainability: Some Challenges Ahead -- 5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 14: When Can Oil Economies be Deemed Sustainable? -- 1 The End of Oil -- 2 Need for Diversification? -- 3 Fiscal Sustainability -- 3.1 The Difference between Rentiers and Super Rentiers -- 3.2 Fiscal Adjustment -- 3.3 Developing a Domestic Taxation Base -- 4 Sustainability and the Labor Market -- 5 Political Sustainability -- 6 Can the GCC Economies Be Sustainable?.